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The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed socioeconomic vulnerabilities around the world. After fighting the coronavirus for more than 1 and a half years now, the countries are recovering from the epidemic with the help of cutting-edge medical research. The policymakers are implementing stimulus packages for post-pandemic economic recovery. However, sustainable “green recovery” plans are yet to get adequate attention. Sustainable investment in green industries can create green jobs, promote a low-carbon economy, and foster long-lasting economic growth in the post-pandemic world. COVID-19 affected countries with emerging economies call for even more focus on such investments. In Bangladesh, the bicycle industry — a growing low-carbon industry — has been showing promising potential for growth since the beginning of the pandemic. Both the local and global markets of Bangladeshi bicycles have seen substantial growth during the epidemic. In this paper, we analyze the potential of the Bangladeshi bicycle industry as an effective green recovery driver. We conduct semi-structured interviews with relevant experts and professionals, analyze their opinions, and perform a “strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT)” analysis. The analysis reveals valuable insights regarding post-pandemic sustainable economic and environmental recovery which will be beneficial to the policymakers of Bangladesh and similar developing countries.
Keywords: Post-pandemic, Green recovery, Bicycle industry, Sustainability, Carbon emission, SWOT analysis, Sustainable transport
The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, has shaken the world economy with its unprecedented and dreadful impacts. Around the world, there is barely any sector that has not suffered from the detrimental consequences of the epidemic. Due to prolonged and repetitive lockdowns worldwide and the majority of the economic activities shut down, the world economy is struggling to thrive. Fortunately, the development in medical science has gifted us with multiple vaccines such as Moderna, Pfizer-BioNTech, Oxford-AstraZeneca, Sinopharm, and Johnson & Johnson vaccines (WHO 2021). With the production and supplies of vaccines on the rise, we can expect that the world is slowly going to win against this invisible enemy. Many countries are already recovering gradually through the proper implementation of economic, technological, and public health strategies (World Economic Forum 2021).
The economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic are colossal. The consequences are even worse in the developing and least developed countries (WTO 2020). The world leaders and policymakers acknowledge that the economy needs significant investment as the first pillar of the post-pandemic recovery strategy. However, the question to be asked before the financial decision-making is “How sustainable is the investment?” For the investment to be sustainable, the policymakers need to ensure that expected economic growth comes with desired environmental benefits. Green investment can achieve both economic and environmental sustainability (Zahan and Chuanmin 2021; Zhou et al. 2020). In the context of 27 Asian economies, several research findings (Abbas et al. 2021a, b; Abbas et al. 2021a, b) indicate that foreign direct investment significantly promotes environmental sustainability and regional collaboration. We believe that green investment could facilitate “green recovery” in the post-pandemic world. Green recovery policies should take into account climate change due to human interference with the environment. According to the Asian Development Bank (ADB), “A green recovery is the key to ensuring a sustainable and resilient return to growth and development after COVID-19” (ADB 2020).
The coronavirus pandemic, although a curse to the global economy, has been a blessing for the global environment (Khan 2021; Wang and Su 2020; Muhammad et al. 2020; Verma and Prakash 2020). Since the crisis has forced the frequent shutdowns of industrial, transportation, and day-to-day activities, there have been significant changes in terms of improved air quality, improved water quality, and reduced carbon emission. However, the optimistic recovery from the pandemic has already reopened the industries, traffic, and other sources of environmental pollution. Therefore, we can no longer expect that the temporary improvements will sustain unless we take proactive measures. When we think of protecting our environment, reducing carbon emission is the first thing that comes to our concern.
The two major sources of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emission are electricity (31%) and transportation (15%) (World Resources Institute 2017). The primary contributor to GHG is carbon dioxide. To reduce carbon emissions, one significant area of improvement could be the reduction of transportation-related emissions. One of the most consequential actions related to post-pandemic green recovery suggested by the United Nations (UN) aims to call an end to fossil fuel subsidies (UN 2020). The adoption of electric vehicles has a great potential for reducing fossil fuel consumption and thus reducing carbon emissions (Kumar and Alok 2020). However, are the countries with emerging economies yet ready to adopt electric vehicles over traditional fossil fuel–based vehicles? To find that out, Ahmed and Karmaker (2019) conducted a study in Bangladesh, a South Asian country with an emerging economy. They identified some key challenges in the adoption of electric vehicles. Some of which include shortage of power supply, lack of charging stations, high charging cost, high battery price, high life-cycle costs, etc. Under the circumstances, what should Bangladesh or the countries with similar developing economies consider as the potential alternative of a low-carbon transportation mode? In this study, we explore the strength and opportunities of the bicycle industry as a green recovery option in Bangladesh. Based on the current market scenario, evidence from previous research works, opinions from focus group discussion, and expert interviews, we perform a strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) analysis. Through in-depth analysis of the external and internal factors, we analyze the potential of the Bangladeshi bicycle industry for green recovery through sustainable economic and environmental growth.
Bangladesh has seen rapid motorization in the last decade with an average motorization rate of 5.6% (BRTA 2022). Figure 1 shows the trend for the number of registered motorized vehicles in Bangladesh. Starting from 2013, a steep positive slope can be observed until 2019. However, we notice a decline in the average number in the year 2020. This can be attributed to the economic crisis brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the ADB (2021), Bangladesh’s GDP fell drastically in the wake of the pandemic resulting in a loss of 5 million full-time jobs in the fiscal year 2020–2021. The epidemic has critically affected the country’s long-standing macroeconomic stability, disrupted people’s livelihood, and raised poverty to 40.9% in 2020 (UNDP 2021). This resulted in fewer yearly purchases of motorized vehicles such as cars, buses, trucks, and bikes.